Triptoefanning!

Ok, I made that word up. Just some quick notes here, Last Wednesday we (hopefully) printed 2.60~ for our TCK DEC 18 options. We then could have bought back in Friday or Monday morning at under 1.6! If you did that congratulations; I will be holding through tomorrow, as the market is due for a nice bullish day and TCK has been treading nicely for the last two days. The holdings in the mine that NG has with NG looking to be bought are probably lending to the speculation.

JNJ has been having a rough time recently but based on todays action it looks like a lower foothold has been grabbed, I'm looking for it to move back up to 64 in the next week or so. As a result I'll be looking to play that as current mid/deep money options are trading with almost zero premium.

Thats about it! Sorry for the lateness of this post I'll try and get back to posting before the open tomorrow. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday- welcome back to work =P

Happy Thanksgiving!

We are going to have Thanksgiving at our house this year which should be interesting. I get to make the cranberry sauce- and pretty much touch nothing else. But thats ok. I want to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday, and take a moment to appreciate what we have; especially in light of all the stores telling us to want and spend with all this Black Friday madness. It seems like Christmas decorations are even earlier this year and its a bit frustrating, oh for a simpler time when truly being a happy child meant times creating worlds based on imagination rather than fill the empty void with material gifts and coolest toys. Sorry for waxing nostalgic, but its become a way of life now ; we want not need, we demand not submit. I'll try to keep that in mind. Happy Thanksgiving! and root for the Lions, they need it.

In trades today volume should be light which could lend itself to some sudden movement. Picked up some TCK Dec 48 at 2 yesterday, looking to flip at 2.50+, on a strong move I'm looking for 3. The March DGIT 25's I'll keep the sell out for 4.20. No other moves planned.

38th Parallel and other factors

With the saber rattling dropping in favor of actual action the North Koreans lobbed several mortar shells at a small military island, there were two casualties from the South and it sounds like considerable more in the North. I'm the South has been itching to have some response every since the loss of the naval boat several months ago; and it appears that they did. We can just hope this simmers down for the sake of millions on the Korean peninsula.

In the market this should be a down day despite HP having a very nice surprise on the upside. I'm looking to re-buy options on TCK, I printed 18.40 on my JAN 32 yesterday. I'm looking for a in the money 40 call for March, and if its a big drop today I'll look for a high percentage drop on TCK or ANR for January calls just in the money. These we are looking to flip in a day or two and hopefully move ~10%

In other moves I'm looking fairly quiet, the holdings of DGIT are too heavy but I need it to move up and I have time. IO is fluctuating pretty regularly between 6-6.50 but I have yet to take advantage of that. NUAN continues to plod along but I still have confidence in the technology.

I will continue to watch HRBN but right now I'm a watcher and not a serious one at that. Samsung might be an interesting play (but risky) in light of the war games.

Any thoughts? and good luck!

***Update

Got back in TCK with some DEC 46 options. Someone is betting on some really big news in December as the 55 Call options (currently Waaaaay out of the money) have an extremely large amount invested. Here is the Option Pain chart (Disclaimer taken from www.optionpain.com) Based on this someone may believe TCK will make a move on troubled Massey. The move would make sense and diversify TCK's coal holdings. I may look to add to in the money calls to limit my risk, but still able to benefit on a sudden move.

When to run...

So it came out on Friday that HRBN's accounting firm was cooking the books for another Chinese company as a result HRBN dropped bigtime and I let the call expired worthless. I had a chance early to dump, but didn't think it would tank that bad. I think I will stay away. Accounting issues are something I want nothing to do with and I'll take my lumps and walk away. I still think if you have the cojones its interesting option; a $7 gain on $17 if the deal still goes through, which is a nice percentage, but I think your risk on the downside is 90% should this deal now also fall. I may in a day throw in for a 20 Option for June, but only if I think the price is right. Its a risk, maybe even a gamble at this point, but a part of me is still a believer.

In other news I will be putting up the TCK Jan option again as Coal continues to move up and I think is overdue for a correction. After ANR's move Friday I can't see getting back in there for a while. Its now in rarefied air, and I don't have a good feeling which way it'll go. I'm a buyer in the low 40's again, but right now I'm just watching.

I took some loss on some other DGIT options and exercised a couple so I'm over heavy on DGIT again. I'll sell some covered calls on a good day this week; otherwise I'll look to move shares on a move up. I'm looking for 30 by the end of December. I have no stops in place currently.

Options Expiration!

Today is the third Friday of the month so its Option Expiration day (tomorrow) As discussed yesterday I have two positions to close in some way today. I think I may with the DGIT sell some at a loss, while exercising a couple of the options. I'm not sure how to justify this other than I will get better per share price than selling the option. This will give me longer to recoup the loss (I have a strong conviction the stock will continue to do well)

As mentioned yesterday the HRBN option I will exercise. I have become increasingly worried about this as Seeking Alpha has posted two hit pieces (both by the same author) which have done their job and hurt the price, however in the face of what I view as an almost certain buy-out at 24, its a worthwhile risk. Rumor is there were several hedge funds caught with their pants down on the buyout offer, and they are/were trying to get out with reduced losses.

It looks like commodities will be down, so I will be looking to buy March ANR options on a 4-5% drop. I did not get my 18 on the TCK options yesterday and doubt I'll see it today.

For some humor someone sent me this today, regarding the recent QE2. Enjoy!

When blogs go bad

So I finally am dusting off the blog again after a very long haitus. I think I may very well have frustrated myself, the whole too much to say and too little time to say it. Plus too much politics- its just not healthy. That- and not enough good fun news.

I'm going to try and take a different course now to see if it changes my investing style. I've been a bit more aggressive in recent weeks during the nice ride of the past month or so (granted the last week has been pretty crummy) but its a nice resettling and I think bullish sentiment seems to prevail.

Looking at the premarket numbers I will be looking to sell some very short term positions picked up yesterday and maybe look to sell off some others.

Lets take a look at what I'm looking at:

I'm still in DGIT, but they took a big hit 2 quarters ago, however by buying year out options around the fall those have done very nicely to recoup some of the stock value loss.

I have some options for Nov (Saturday expiration for 25) hoping to get a nice pop on those today and get rid of them. Currently in the RED pretty deep (got greedy and thought I could squeeze another 10% on a nice rise- fail) But think its reasonable to think a small loss or small gain still possible

I bought some March 25 options on DGIT yesterday @2.70, which was up almost 26% by the end of the day. If its up today I'm a seller above 4

I bought HRBN options for NOV, I'm down on those but will let the options excercise. Stock currently between 20-21 with a tender to take the company private at 24 on the table. I expected news by Nov, but think the deal should be firm by end of Dec. I'll take ~15% and be happy :-P

Coal continues to look strong this year, I've been in and out of ANR and TCK all year. Currently hold no ANR stock or options but looking to get back in on a down day. The stock swings 4-6% almost daily, and if you are nimble provides some great option opportunities. Holding a Jan call at 32 for TCK since Sept, its up very nicely. I have an ask at 18.

Finally a JNJ Jan option at 52.5 I got in June. Stock looks good and I will not look to sell until January in hopes of a nice Santa Rally.

That covers the options. I'll post if I put any sell/buys

Placed a Sell order for $4.1 on the DGIT March 25.