One more with feeling...

This is me before Hiking out of the backside of Killebrew Canyon in Heavenly, Mark and I had an absolutely fantastic time going down this (Note there was NOBODY back there) so the conditions were prime. However then we spend the next part of an hour hiking/traversing our way back to the lift. Yes the ski bug is coming out a bit earlier this year...





I'll give Mark something for himself too, comments on this are usually "That looks steep" Usually the camera makes it look even less steep too.

Anyone want to go back?

Currently offering buy 3 flights get 1 flight free for 4 people....
And yes Corbet's is actually a trail....though not one for the faint of heart

The Current Portfolio

Drum roll please..... Here is the current portfolio, watch it at your own peril (Disclaimer: I own shares of all the stocks listed here, any statements are solely my own opinion and do not represent anyone else's opinion; most would probably be scared and think I'm crazy)

ANR, Coal (the metallurgical kind) used in steel production. Really like the company, looking for something in the 60's in 1-2 years once the world economy has really recovered.

CGW, Water ETF (the drinking kind) Long term like 10 years safe drinking water might be scarcer than oil. This is a curiousity play. Not a whole lot invested in this.

DGIT, Internet design/advertising. I'm in this waaaay to much right now (almost 25% of the portfolio), looking to trim my holdings to half by the end of October. Then use some long term options to control even more of the shares. Looking for 27 in 6-12 months.

ERF, Oil Canroy (monthly dividend (distribution)) and long on oil
HTE, see above

IO, Oil/natural gas exploration equipment. Its a niche market for sure but I think they have a solid product line. Right now with depressed energy prices its hurt the bottom line, look for a rebound with rising prices. Looking for 7-10 in 24 months.

NUAN, speech recognition software. Another niche market, the king of which is Nuance. I've been long in this for a while and while I have trimmed position in it as it has become a more stable stock I still like the long term view. Looking for 22 in 18months

Finally WM. Waste Management. Its garbage, its here now its here to stay. Decent dividends and stability. No rocket stock here, but slow and steady.

So thats it! Take it as you will.

What's in the wallet II

It was around January/February time frame that things finally started to settle out, and as even a broken clock is right twice a day the bottom finally arrived. I started making some good trades. The stock market was down and the DOW bottomed early March. This could have been one of the best times to buy in the stock market in about 50 years. Really. You had great-not good, stocks off over 50% from the highs and if you had cash (or even if you didnt have that much) you really had the opportunity of a lifetime. Using options (which are a great vehicle if you lack some cash) I bought Jan '11 $10 options for Intel for $4; that same option was selling yesterday for $10.5. I loaded up on coal options from ANR and sold many of them at over 100% profit. I dabbled in XOM (Exxon Mobil) IBM, EBAY and others. In fact the only option that expired worthless on me was an out-of-the-money call on XOM, I bought a week before expiration based on my prediction they would surpass estimates (they didn't) but I knew going in that it was 'an acceptable gamble' because that's all it was. I lost in the short term on some options I went big on DGIT in June (they are an internet advertising/webdesign group) The options were for September 17.5. I lost on the options but was still bullish on the stock so I exercised the options and received the shares, I think looking forward the company has some great potential (disclosure I own DGIT, IBM and ANR) Considering where I was 8 months ago I look back feeling pretty good, I am up 72% from February- which is great, its still not quite as high however as it was July 2008. Oh well =P

The reason I bring this up is there is a side of me that really fears this rapid climb, and I as I try to move my portfolio to a more shored up (think more cash) position and out of options I sincerely think the market is due for a pretty serious correction in the next 2-3 months. Worst case I think we could touch 8000 on the Dow again. And then I think will be another great opportunity. I'll open the portfolio so you can see whats in it tomorrow.

What's in my wallet

So I'm hardly a financial genius but I thought I'd spew a little on my general outlook for the next few months. To say that the last year has been a roller coaster is putting it mildly. For those with 401k's and stocks day to day were drops (and updrafts) of several percentage points. Hardly the model of stability that is touted by those who think that stocks should form the basis of your retirement. I think I'll divide this into a few parts because I tend to get a bit carried away at points.

Lets take a peek back. When the first rumblings hit back last September I was at first skeptical, and stupidly tried to use the weakness to shore up some positions I was holding. Ouch. After playing options for the next couple months fairly successfully (These were one day and out style to match the +/- volatility) while slowly moving over to more cash based holdings. However, my core positions had been beat down pretty significantly. By around Thanksgiving I had to myself declared the worst was over and began moving toward buying again. Once again my bullish drive was a bit shortsighted. I took a few more lumps and hit a low in late February. For the 401k management I purposely moved the majority of my holdings to small cap funds and more aggressive/developing/tech funds (this was in January) when I was SURE the worst was over. It still wasnt't. SO what was the damage? Pretty bad, by late February I was off 46% from 4 months earlier. And the 401k was off something like 10% (even with contributions the entire time) It was time to change the strategy.

PT 2 tomorrow

Great Football Weekend

I highly enjoyed some very good games this week in the NFL. There is something very satisfying about watching the NFL; I really can't quite place it, but I think it has to do with the great ability to gamble. I know that sounds crazy but I think its true; Fantasy football is incredibly popular not so much because the fans root for their favorite NFL team, but rather because they can root and find a vested interest in games they otherwise would have no interest in. Oh yes and there are 'prizes' at stake with the goal to win the league. I know I'm hooked on it.

Lets not fool ourselves there is a lot of money at stake each week for daily/ game bets. Who doesn't throw down a dollar to make a weekly pick sheet? No other sport has a such a definitive schedule where this is possible. And lets be frank as well the NFL knows it and allows to such a degree that they fine teams for fudging their injury reports. Now the NFL says its to protect the players... bs... its to protect the gambling spreads and make sure they are honest. Which is ironic for a sport that pledges to be so pure. But in the end none of this matters to me, on Sunday I'll be on the couch rooting hard for the Giants.... (and watching to see how my ff league players are doing on the stat sheet)

Do unto others as you have them do unto you...

In good news to me (bad news to the market today) President Obama has reiterated his stance on tariffs on Chineese tires. Now I know that I am usually pro free market economy, and this may sound protectionist. But the fact is that everything with China is anything but free trade. Mostly this stems from the Chinese pegging their currency to the dollar, which as a result has seriously undervauled the yuan. In recent years this has been changed to a 'basket' of currencies but still puts a huge competative advantage with Chinese manufacturing due to undervalued currency. Ironically this tariff doesn't affect US jobs much- the tires here are the low end and almost non-produced in the US anyway, but its an interesting study. For a good op-ed piece here.

"Last month, Beijing was forced to change its tariffs on imported auto parts after losing an appeal of a WTO ruling in a case brought by the United States, the European Union and Canada. They challenged Beijing's policy of requiring automakers to use at last 40 percent Chinese-made components or pay more than double the usual tariff on imported parts."

From a different source... but sounds free to me, right?

Lock in your mortagage rates soon....

I was hit with this headline today "Federal deficit hits $1.38 trillion through August" (here's the link) I just have to chuckle now when I hear President Obama say "Here's what you need to know. First, I will not sign a plan that adds one dime to our deficits – either now or in the future. Period. And to prove that I'm serious, there will be a provision in this plan that requires us to come forward with more spending cuts if the savings we promised don't materialize. Part of the reason I faced a trillion dollar deficit when I walked in the door of the White House is because too many initiatives over the last decade were not paid for – from the Iraq War to tax breaks for the wealthy. I will not make that same mistake with health care."

Yes, thats right he inherited a deficit of 1 trillion dollars which was 50 years in the making and already increased it 40% in 8 months. If I held any US currency or was buying US debt I'd sure look to trim some of that soon. Ironically that wouldn't be that bad, considering my mortgage at 4.85% would suddenly look really nice once inflation hits like 5% and interest rates are at 7%.

The land of the free and the home of healthcare

I listened and/or watched all of President Obama's heath care diatribe last night and left with a feeling of being distinctly let down. I have said in the past that I have been skeptical of health care reform from the beginning from a purely personal and selfish reason; I have good coverage, I'm healthy (knock on wood) and feel very secure in my position and my insurance. IN fact I've always felt (and justifiably so) that I in the position that I am in would have the most to lose. This has led me to watch the ongoings with some unease and a relative amount of skepticism- to me the numbers just don't add up. How to pay for this? To me you follow the money and the obvious place to reduce costs is: drum roll please (you won't find it in the Obama plan) is Tort reform; basically medical malpractice cases. Frivolous law suits are killing the medical profession to the point where they need to be judges before they are doctors. Obstetricians are paying through the nose for insurance because of it. Place caps on the monetary compensation or reform the laws and a huge cost goes away. But that is apparently not an option.

The frightening thing to me is how this 'plan' will work. There are some holes you could drive a dinosaur through. Then there is the implementation of this 'simple' plan to create a public option to compete with private companies locked in to a sinking ship. Make no mistake any private company in this plan is doomed at some point, its just financial suicide. The only way to partly survive, they would promote the very behaviour that led us into this economic conditions. Observe; Insurance company A has some at risk people on their plan, so they look at company B and say ahh, if we lower our rates or better yet come up with some funky packaging for plans we can get more people to come over and more money to cover the at-risk people because now we legally can't drop them. We can also sell swaps where investors can essentially bet that our people will remain healthy- if they do they get a nice return. Look at all this money coming in.... this is great. And so it begins, then people get sick. Now suddenly instead of being able to cut and run the entire health insurance company is brought down, and not just one person loses their insurance but EVERYONE. A la Lehman or Bear Sterns. That sounds like a super end game for everyone. Think about it if it was a government plan. What happens when they fail?

And don't make me laugh with 'Bi-partisanship' -that was as a pundit said "A declaration of war." but that's for another day.

Let the man speak

So I haven't posted in forever because well I've been on blogcation and I needed some new inspiration I guess. Anyway, I have some fodder for the next few times I feel inspired to write now, which is either good or bad depending on your opinion of my writing. Here goes:

A lot (way way too much) has been made of President Obama's chat to students tomorrow, and while I have some seriously differing views on healthcare reform, on Tuesday that is NOT the issue. Let him speak. He is the president of the United States, and though he may have his supporters and detractors he speaks extremely well in rehearsed settings with a speech and he has the ability to inspire people; and to a young student that may be what he or she needs to go from a drop out to a graduate, from a poor student to a good one. His speech is not about healthcare or domestic affairs or as some conservative pundits have tried to make it sound like a propaganda express to 'brainwash' the children. This speech is designed to inspire; and I thought it was very good- it needs to be heard, and we need to keep the fear mongering out of it. On Tuesday I hope that every school that foolishly vowed not to show it, should show it. Don't be stubborn or proud, but admit wrong. And let the children be inspired, not by a democrat or a republican, but by their president, who is and rightly should be a role model to young people everywhere. We as a nation are at a critical juncture in terms of our work ethic. I feel students and their parents have found it easier to place blame elsewhere and not looking at the real problem; an honest lack of hard work. We have so many distractions, pick up a book, learn, better yet inspire. President Obama here is doing the right thing; So let the man speak.