Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Reaching the Peak

Futures look flat today, in light of the GDP data which came in slightly below estimates at 2.6% (consensus was 2.7) With tomorrow the last trading day of the week (I think) it well could be a tipping point. December has moved the markets up 4.8%- to put that in perspective for the year is just over 10, so almost half the year's rise has been in the past 21 days. Basically I think when the whole house of cards comes down, it'll come down rather hard. Its just a matter of when.

I'm still heavy stocks, so I'm looking to reduce positions (read liability) in the event of a downturn- not to mention when it turns back around it'd be nice to have some powder to take advantage.

So the IO call was a nice surprise yesterday (I didn't expect it to hit 1.45 so I sort of set it and forgot it) The TCK option bought the other day recovered very nicely yesterday- looking for a small shoot to get us out of the red and into the black, (another +1% move today will do it).

Other moves I'm still heavy DGIT, so a move up I'm a seller of 25% of my position. Everything else I feel pretty good about.

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Open... Up?

The answer (again) is yes! Sure why not? Another day another Green start- it does boggle the mind. From a looking stupid standpoint I bought some TCK 50 at 8.3, which proceeded to go up to 8.5 before deciding it liked the 7's better, not that I'm panicked, but its a paper 'loss' on what was somewhat a 'panic' purchase- I wanted in, and I was going to get in. I took a flyer on IO Jan 7's for $1.2 as I said its been bouncing between 8 and 8.75 for a while, and think it could move up nicely on some low volume, and hopefully turn .4-.5/option (~40%)

ANR confirmed its offer for Massey which is unfortunate as I had not gotten in on that. The move makes a lot of sense for Alpha- their management with Massey's mines and resources should yield a nice turnaround, plus it adds cash and adds 1/2 billion in net sales to the bottom line. Coal is starting to get trendy with the analysts however, so once that happens the peak is usually not far behind. Sadly because the institutions are moving out while the individuals move in leaving the little guys as the bad holders.

I think the best advice I ever read about the markets was a two pronged piece, 1) Never fall in love with a stock. 2)The best stockpicker averages about 70% so you are doing well if even 3 out 10 are losers. This goes back to step 1 however, don't fall in love saying 'It'll come back' For a stock to lose 50% it then needs to increase 100% to get back to value- its much faster going down, take your lumps and walk away. I'm still trying to put this into practice.

UPDATE*** Sold all my IO 7's at $1.45 (as some pass at 1.5) but its a 21% gain minus fees, which is a solid win. As I said I'm a little spooked by what could happen between this year and next (that and I won't be in front of a computer) for a week.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Santa Rally Continues!

Its Monday again, and guess what? That's right the market is set to open UP again. Now I am getting more and more bearish on the market for next week but in this shortened and most likely low volume week anything is possible, and I tend to view it as possible. (Side note this Thursday I will be trimming positions as I expect the first week of the new year to be baaaaaaad. Though it may be (as some analysts seem to point to) that the pullback won't be until February- but as far as and as fast as the market has come in the past 2-3 months I just don't see it keeping up this frankly torrid pace.

There was an interesting piece on 60 minutes Sunday regarding states debts- and it was pretty ugly. They said that Illinois state troupers were being turned away from gas stations if they wanted to pay with their state issue cc- that's how delinquent the state is on payments. We're broke, just some states are broke-r than others, and its probably going to take the Federal government to bail the states out now. So what does that mean? Well the previous plan has always been ask someone for the dough, but we're running out of lenders, and we don't like giving up what we have. Its a real lose lose.

The sliver of silver lining to this is that as money gets printed the stock market will go up (as the businesses become somewhat of a 'commodity' But then your dollar is worthless anyway so its really not a great situation. We really need to embrace or maybe a better expression is 'take our medicine' and yes pay taxes and accept they need to go up. We can't have less than 50% of the population paying NO Federal taxes, its unsustainable, and sure in the short term it hurts, but it'd hurt a lot less now then not too far down the road.

Whats the plan for today? I'm looking to grab shooting stars and flip them. TCK has looked strong last two days and closed Friday looking really nice. Looking at some Jan options (deep in money) I think IO should bounce back, looking for 8.5 in a couple days, going to try and grab some $5 options, DGIT may continue to climb, on a drop I'm buying March 25 options mid 4's.
I'll try and update any purchases.

***Bought Jan TCK 50 @8.3

Friday, December 17, 2010

Sick.... bleh

So I'm struggling with this cold for the past few days hence no posts- sorry about that. To be honest though its been a lot of watching and uncertainty and not a lot of action. I exited the TCK position on Wednesday on a 17% gain. It subsequently has dropped further so if you were still in I'd suggest watching the action today and sell on a spike on open or just exercise the shares- the long term outlook I think is still strong. Much of the income is commodities based and I don't know how the dollar is still 'strong' recently in light of the countries continued spending without taxing. In good news a pork filled 1.3trillion rolled bill was rejected (something I never thought I'd see) so maybe there is some hope- or its just too little too late. Short story Commodities=good as China consumes more and the dollar declines, the stock should go up.

One piece of news that makes me interested is the credit cards got slammed yesterday on proposals of capping transaction fees. Most of them cut by 10% or more, I'd look for some follow through on the downside today with some balancing on Monday. The aggressive play is to try and guess the bottom for a quick profit. I'll be watching the charts carefully. Looking at V and M to lead.

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Flip a coin

Some nice data this morning with respect to the PPI and retail sales, both which came in above estimates. This could bode well for the markets IF the hesitation of profit taking is shrugged off. The cards seem set perfectly to reach a 2 year high of the markets by Friday, which aligns with our plans for TCK. However, the danger is a breakdown and sell off if the momentum fails and the profit taking kicks into overdrive. Previous patterns have been up big at the open followed by a quick step down then progressive slow drop the rest of the day, it may be better to open lower/unchanged and build over the day.

HRBN has had a nice little run recently; its still to scary for me however, JNJ continues to hemorrhage, and should be due for a turn soon- its too good a stock to continue in this pattern. Finally ANR has continued to disappoint me neither really dropping nor going up- its in a holding pattern and I will hold and watch to see which way it goes. DGIT has had some pops but can't seem to break the 30 ceiling but I did sell a couple covered calls the other day at $.35 (DEC 30) pick up some free dividends as it were. Still holding the TCK options but on a nice move today I'm out at 8.5- just ran out of patience =)

Monday, December 13, 2010

A new week!

Well here we are on another Monday in December and the market is..... UP, AGAIN! They say that the trend is our friend, and it sure seems pretty dependable. Note we have 2 more Mondays left this month, but only 1 that follows the Santa Rally, and that would be next week- BUT that could be under a lot of selling pressure as Friday is Options Expirations. I think an up Monday next week is a reasonable play however, and look for light volume. Which bodes poorly for the following week... but that could be setting up our new positions for next year. But thats another discussion.

We are now in the crunch time for Dec options, and as we let the TCK 50's ride last week we are approaching that 60 threshold. Remember what the tea leaves (option pain chart) told us? However, unless I'm really a believer in the tea leaves, I'm looking to close out my position (We're sitting on close to 45% profit at 10:00, and like last time I'm might have missed some additional gains, but locking in profit is locking in gains which is really what this is all about. The current Pain index is showing now 70 Calls! Of course there are no bids on that but the 60 option is still selling at $.50, so that is still a 4% rise priced in. At an linear average of 1% off the current price its feasible. So I just may hold another day (or two) ((or three)) we're ruled by fear and greed, fear of the loss and greed of more gain. Watch the market and TCK today, a slow rise over the day bodes very well.

Not really watching too much else today, ANR has posted some nice gains off a bad day last week, but I've just been a spectator- plus I think right now TCK is the play for DEC. ANR is still a nice long play especially as it seems likely they will take over Massey, which will seriously increase their potential but also a test to see if their managment can turn Massey around (Current Massey operating costs are abysmal)

Disclaimer: All info is placed in fun, I own all shares I say I own, in no way should this be a solicitation to buy or sell, just educational fun to see how much I lose!

Friday, December 10, 2010

Settling much?

To be fair the market 'settling' has been certainly less dramatic than I anticipated following last weeks impressive showing. Watching the uncertainty in the House Congress about the taxes should cause a pretty tepid back and forth movement until a decision is made. Honestly at this point they all should just resign, they are all useless. Make both house and senate a rotating position like a jury selection, take you average citizens and throw them into seats. If nothing at least those people will be able to compromise a little because what is going on now is a disgrace and downright embarrassing. This way you'll get a good mix of liberal and conservatives with a limited session to do something (Say 1 month) and who wouldn't want to say "Oh and during the January session I helped pass ______." You certainly wouldn't be on the side of "Well we did nothing because nothing was better than a bad bill." What?! It would be downright cool- I'd jump at that in a minute if I got that kind of letter.

Action today: TCK and ANR have slowly been hemorrhagic recently usually with a strong open then decline the rest of the day. I think they may be ripe to start the next leg up. TCK options are still strong for $65 now, but I would be very doubtful those will be in the money by next Friday. Might buy DGIT options on a strong down. Currently the TCK 50 options are down but I'm going to let that ride into next week unless today is particularly good.


Just a point I need to get off my chest; Julian Assange is NOT a hero, this line 'I am Julian Assange' is a naive thing to say; he is nothing more than a figurehead and a thug, and whatever so-called moral highground he said he had long dissapeared when he attempted to blackmail.... well everyone with this 'massive dump' of information. Look I too want my Government to act with honesty and integrity in their actions, but I also know I am not educated enough to undestand diplomatic releations either, nor am I naive enough to believe that goverment (and business) can run without whispers and not megahorns broadcasting their every move. If he (Assange) claims to be 'policing' the US government, who polices him and his organisation? And the answer is no-one. So he is just another hypocriticate- do as I say not as I do. I think he enjoys it, the fame, the intrigue, the life on the run, cloak and dagger mystery surrounding him; he's been called everything from scum to 'a hero of our time.' He is not Woodward to Deepthroat, Assange -though he calls himself a reporter nor writer, does no research, really does nothing but expouse the benifit and beauty of free information, and other Utopian- and completely impractical views. If anyone is the 'hero' here is the former analayst who allegedly stole the information in the first place; and who by-the-way will spend the rest of his life in jail for the largest act of espionage ever reported. But of him Assage dismisses, afterall he can't lose the spotlight, and claims due to 'journalistic integrity' they can't reveal the source- nor support him, and so they leave him to rot- disposable heroes aren't just for the military.
Finally we reach the point where it turns a bit comical; REVENGE! shreiked the headline on Huffpost yesterday and gleefully described the temporary takedown of Mastercard and later Visa, by this new hacker group as 'revenge' for halting payments to Wikileaks. Now this part is where it gets good; An anonymous hacker says 'We don't know Assange but we support freedom on the internet, and together we can take down the credit card web sites' 'Ok' say all the wannabe anachists help us create a new world Utopia of free information, "Alright' says the hacker first you need to download my software and then we can do it! So all these drones download this hacking software which I garuntee is loaded with backdoors and other nastiness and the hacker has expanded his network by a thousand-fold, then sure enough Mastercard goes down, alright tell your friends and we'll take down more! So now the hacker has an even larger network of zombie computers. Good they deserve eachother.
"In an online letter the group said its activists were neither vigilantes nor terrorists. It added: "The goal is simple: Win the right to keep the Internet free of any control from any entity, corporation, or government.""
So purposefully shuttuing down websites is not control by an entitity? Its the dillusitional running the asylum. The only thing that their mucking around does is point out a growing need FOR a governing/police body on the internet; exactly opposite what they said they stand for. Next thing that will be said is this is a Governement conspiracy to control the internet. Its just unbelievable.

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Runaway Train?

I can't say that its off the tracks, but right now I look at the market and wonder how its still accelerating. Today's movement (which again points to a very strong start) is based on optimism fueled by the renewal of the tax cuts.... tax cuts for all. Which I have to say is a big mistake. I think that the middle class will still benifit by the tax cut continuing; read it as NOT a tax increase! But the renewal of this tax cut for all is difficult to swallow. Why Republicans continue to stubbornly refuse to budge for this tiny percentage (who by their very description are NOT suffering through this downturn- or they wouldn't be making so much money) is aggrevating in the highest order. If it comes down again that nearly half the population do not pay any taxes again this year however, I have to declare the system broken and accept failure. If everyone is paying tax than tax them, if 90 of the federal taxes are taken from these top %'s and businesses well then we are hypocrites of the first order if we yell tax them more.
I am looking to recoup my losses with the TCK and ANR options bought yesterday, and I'll be looking to sell on any weakness (sounds familiar?) On a strong move by JNJ I might also clear my position. The stock has been very weak for the past few weeks and seems to have a new lawsuit everyday which never bodes well. I'd like to see 8.5 or 9 for the TCK 50's if I'm being greedy. As I said it looks like (based soley on options) that over 21 million says it goes over 60 to close on the 17th (11mill over 55) We'll see it looks like a good day!

***Afternoon update: Well today was.... strange, spiking prices for both ANR and TCK at the start led to selling the ANR within the first 10 minutes at a 40% take; I held TCK and now am unhappily looking at what was a 40%+ up early completely disappear under selling pressure all day. So the ANR was a win; TCK I'm stuck kicking myself again. The weakness ending today looks to me like a very bad day tomorrow for the market. To that end I think I should take my medicine and sell today even at a slight loss thinking tomorrow I could buy lower. But I've been wrong so much on this stock I'm going to do a wait and see on it. The plan is to double down on a steep drop tomorrow, with a watchful eye to see if it looks like it could be 2 down days before a turnaround. To compensate for this I sold (FINALLY!) the Mar 25 DGIT calls for $4.7 even better than the 4.3 I've been looking for forever. Go Figure.

Monday, December 6, 2010

Please let me out

Well another starting down day and TCK continues to float, I swear it has a jet pack on. I doubled down on Friday with respect to my put which currently has me at ~17% in the hole which would hurt a bit. Basically at this point I just am waiting for the drop or at least a pullback then drop the put and go long. Of course at that point the stock will throw a full reversal and my put would look genious; but I'll be long out of the that and then looking at the wrong side of a buy call. Right now I have no feeling of where th market is at. A couple articles seemed bullish thorugh January to make up for a 'dismal' year- hey everybody likes an end year bonus. Of course the 'false' inflation of wealth bodes really bad in a couple months (Feb-March) but until then I suppose just hold on a go for the ride.
Looking to get in to TCK and ANR today despite my gut feel that everything is due for a pullback.... right now there is just too much optimism not to try and take advantage.

***Update, closed out the puts at a 18% loss then went long on the 50 Calls at 5.5. Judging by the option pain, TCK is expected to pass- not hit but pass 60 by next Friday (17th) Which means that I should be able to get $4 on my call if I'm right which will be a tidy 80% to over my poor move on the put. At this point I'm a bit sour I sold those calls last week- they'd look really nice today! Also riding the coal train, picked up some Dec 18 2010 55.0 Call @ 1.6.

Friday, December 3, 2010

The great game

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. Such an example I found this morning when it appeared that the futures we UP again! With the markets up over 3% in the past 2 days I was certain that would be the end of the up days and give me a chance to pick up some new stocks/options on the down. Yes I think December will be a good month for stocks so I do think the overall trend is bullish, but corrections are normal- no essential to a healthy situation. So imagine my dismay with a double helping of news; consolidation in the Metalurgical coal companies, (TCK and ANR would be affected) and an uptick in the futures= looking bad for my puts- which you might say I deserved for jumping anyway, and then you wouldn't be wrong. Then I got lucky, the jobs report-which was supposed to be a can't miss +100,000 jobs came out at 39,000 and the unemployment rate went up .2% to 9.8%. And the futures dropped; which is good for my short term, that and base metal pricing dropped by almost a 1%. Now to be honest I find the unemployment rate a joke- basically its only if you have been out of the workforce for 9 months after that you are removed from that %- but you still don't have a job, so there are still a lot of people looking for work, so in the spirit of the season we wish all those in tought times that they find the employment they need.
Action for today: I would love to see TCK drop to fill the gap at just below 50, this would give me a chance to sell the puts at 5+, and re-buy calls. I think a 5% pullback is possible, I know I've been calling for it and it just keeps going up, but today- maybe today (crosses fingers) I'll be watching TCK and ANR today with an eye at IO and DIGIT to see how they hold up. It should be pretty red everywhere; this is ok, even good. Happy Hunting!

Disclaimer; I own or plan to own all stocks/options called out here, this is in no way a solicitation to buy nor a suggestion. The material provided here is for entertainment only, and should not be taken out of that context, Stock have inherent risk and they can decline in value (duh) be smart.

Thursday, December 2, 2010

The Wave

Sorry I had to use the title after seeing a book plugged on Colbert Show the other day, I'm looking forward to a pretty quiet day today, the futures have been slowly dropping, and the day should end down 50-75pts. I'll be browsing on a few stocks especially on dips. ANR TCK MSFT TSL. We should now be in the trough, and I expect a slow slide down today- which is fine.

I'm hoping that DGIT will continue to rise today, yesterdays action was pretty disappointing. I'm still looking for that 4.3!

IO also continues to look strong but I don't have a good feel where it will go so I'm in watch and wait mode. It seems to have finally broken out of the channel (on the high side) so 'technically' I view that as a good thing- but I've never claimed to understand chartists.

Again the plan for today is any -5% move by any of the 4 mentioned and I'll be looking to get back in at slightly in the money calls- preferably ones with potential high return, low premiums on the option pricing.


****Afternoon update- Well sometimes you guess wrong, as both TCK and JNJ options would have grabbed higher gains if we held into today, however no one ever complained about locking in gains which I did yesterday. I'm surprised at the strength of the market today, so I'll push off my projections by a day or two. I feel there is a gap at 49.50 that needs to be filled, so I'll look for the correction around that point, hopefully tomorrow!

****3:00PM Update, I have sinned and broke my rule but I could not resist, I bought a handful of TCK 55 Puts at $2.8 everything in my logic says tomorrow can not continue this rally. Looking to get out at 3.5-4 tomorrow hopefully at the open. Looks like I might even get my DGIT 4.3 today
Disclaimer; I own or plan to own all stocks/options called out here, this is in no way a solicitation to buy nor a suggestion. The material provided here is for entertainment only, and should not be taken out of that context, Stock have inherent risk and they can decline in value (duh) be smart.

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Let the bulls run

....And out of the gate it looks like we got the bump we were looking for. Some nice PMI data out of China and Europe and a good jobs report could be just the sense of security we were looking for. Its looking like a sell day- for me. I picked up some JNJ DEC 60 calls yesterday afternoon at 1.95. I would be disappointed if we can't move those today at 3, (or higher, 3.5 would be nice). The important move will be at the open, a spike up and quick retreat would not bode too well, but if it settles quickly I'd feel good about a small rise the rest of the day. I think anywhere between 3.2-3.5 will work just fine.

I also will be looking to sell the DGIT MAR 25 at 4.3 (still haven't printed at 4.3) and maybe trim my stock position on a 5% move.

Finally, our TCK DEC 48 options which we (hopefully) picked up either Friday or Monday at sub 1.60, looking for 3.5-4 today(get greedy). I think regardless at the end day however its a sell; TCK has been hot recently and needs a day to establish a local low.

Good luck and enjoy today!


***Update TCK DEC 48 already printed 4 by 10AM, Sell placed at 4.1 JNJ looks very weak, looking now for 2.5

***End of day update, We got both prices we were looking for today. TCK continues to look strong into the close, however I already got my $4.1 and JNJ at 2.5 for a +100% gain (depending where you got in) and 25% gain respectfully. Unfortunately I think we will not have many options tomorrow as I expect the market may start positive before closing down on profit taking.

Stocks I'll be watching tomorrow to buy: ANR, TCK, TSL, INTC, JNJ

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Triptoefanning!

Ok, I made that word up. Just some quick notes here, Last Wednesday we (hopefully) printed 2.60~ for our TCK DEC 18 options. We then could have bought back in Friday or Monday morning at under 1.6! If you did that congratulations; I will be holding through tomorrow, as the market is due for a nice bullish day and TCK has been treading nicely for the last two days. The holdings in the mine that NG has with NG looking to be bought are probably lending to the speculation.

JNJ has been having a rough time recently but based on todays action it looks like a lower foothold has been grabbed, I'm looking for it to move back up to 64 in the next week or so. As a result I'll be looking to play that as current mid/deep money options are trading with almost zero premium.

Thats about it! Sorry for the lateness of this post I'll try and get back to posting before the open tomorrow. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday- welcome back to work =P

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Happy Thanksgiving!

We are going to have Thanksgiving at our house this year which should be interesting. I get to make the cranberry sauce- and pretty much touch nothing else. But thats ok. I want to wish everyone a safe and happy holiday, and take a moment to appreciate what we have; especially in light of all the stores telling us to want and spend with all this Black Friday madness. It seems like Christmas decorations are even earlier this year and its a bit frustrating, oh for a simpler time when truly being a happy child meant times creating worlds based on imagination rather than fill the empty void with material gifts and coolest toys. Sorry for waxing nostalgic, but its become a way of life now ; we want not need, we demand not submit. I'll try to keep that in mind. Happy Thanksgiving! and root for the Lions, they need it.


In trades today volume should be light which could lend itself to some sudden movement. Picked up some TCK Dec 48 at 2 yesterday, looking to flip at 2.50+, on a strong move I'm looking for 3. The March DGIT 25's I'll keep the sell out for 4.20. No other moves planned.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

38th Parallel and other factors


With the saber rattling dropping in favor of actual action the North Koreans lobbed several mortar shells at a small military island, there were two casualties from the South and it sounds like considerable more in the North. I'm the South has been itching to have some response every since the loss of the naval boat several months ago; and it appears that they did. We can just hope this simmers down for the sake of millions on the Korean peninsula.

In the market this should be a down day despite HP having a very nice surprise on the upside. I'm looking to re-buy options on TCK, I printed 18.40 on my JAN 32 yesterday. I'm looking for a in the money 40 call for March, and if its a big drop today I'll look for a high percentage drop on TCK or ANR for January calls just in the money. These we are looking to flip in a day or two and hopefully move ~10%

In other moves I'm looking fairly quiet, the holdings of DGIT are too heavy but I need it to move up and I have time. IO is fluctuating pretty regularly between 6-6.50 but I have yet to take advantage of that. NUAN continues to plod along but I still have confidence in the technology.

I will continue to watch HRBN but right now I'm a watcher and not a serious one at that. Samsung might be an interesting play (but risky) in light of the war games.

Any thoughts? and good luck!

***Update
Got back in TCK with some DEC 46 options. Someone is betting on some really big news in December as the 55 Call options (currently Waaaaay out of the money) have an extremely large amount invested. Here is the Option Pain chart (Disclaimer taken from www.optionpain.com) Based on this someone may believe TCK will make a move on troubled Massey. The move would make sense and diversify TCK's coal holdings. I may look to add to in the money calls to limit my risk, but still able to benefit on a sudden move.

Monday, November 22, 2010

When to run...

So it came out on Friday that HRBN's accounting firm was cooking the books for another Chinese company as a result HRBN dropped bigtime and I let the call expired worthless. I had a chance early to dump, but didn't think it would tank that bad. I think I will stay away. Accounting issues are something I want nothing to do with and I'll take my lumps and walk away. I still think if you have the cojones its interesting option; a $7 gain on $17 if the deal still goes through, which is a nice percentage, but I think your risk on the downside is 90% should this deal now also fall. I may in a day throw in for a 20 Option for June, but only if I think the price is right. Its a risk, maybe even a gamble at this point, but a part of me is still a believer.

In other news I will be putting up the TCK Jan option again as Coal continues to move up and I think is overdue for a correction. After ANR's move Friday I can't see getting back in there for a while. Its now in rarefied air, and I don't have a good feeling which way it'll go. I'm a buyer in the low 40's again, but right now I'm just watching.

I took some loss on some other DGIT options and exercised a couple so I'm over heavy on DGIT again. I'll sell some covered calls on a good day this week; otherwise I'll look to move shares on a move up. I'm looking for 30 by the end of December. I have no stops in place currently.

Friday, November 19, 2010

Options Expiration!

Today is the third Friday of the month so its Option Expiration day (tomorrow) As discussed yesterday I have two positions to close in some way today. I think I may with the DGIT sell some at a loss, while exercising a couple of the options. I'm not sure how to justify this other than I will get better per share price than selling the option. This will give me longer to recoup the loss (I have a strong conviction the stock will continue to do well)

As mentioned yesterday the HRBN option I will exercise. I have become increasingly worried about this as Seeking Alpha has posted two hit pieces (both by the same author) which have done their job and hurt the price, however in the face of what I view as an almost certain buy-out at 24, its a worthwhile risk. Rumor is there were several hedge funds caught with their pants down on the buyout offer, and they are/were trying to get out with reduced losses.

It looks like commodities will be down, so I will be looking to buy March ANR options on a 4-5% drop. I did not get my 18 on the TCK options yesterday and doubt I'll see it today.

For some humor someone sent me this today, regarding the recent QE2. Enjoy!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

When blogs go bad

So I finally am dusting off the blog again after a very long haitus. I think I may very well have frustrated myself, the whole too much to say and too little time to say it. Plus too much politics- its just not healthy. That- and not enough good fun news.

I'm going to try and take a different course now to see if it changes my investing style. I've been a bit more aggressive in recent weeks during the nice ride of the past month or so (granted the last week has been pretty crummy) but its a nice resettling and I think bullish sentiment seems to prevail.
Looking at the premarket numbers I will be looking to sell some very short term positions picked up yesterday and maybe look to sell off some others.
Lets take a look at what I'm looking at:

I'm still in DGIT, but they took a big hit 2 quarters ago, however by buying year out options around the fall those have done very nicely to recoup some of the stock value loss.
I have some options for Nov (Saturday expiration for 25) hoping to get a nice pop on those today and get rid of them. Currently in the RED pretty deep (got greedy and thought I could squeeze another 10% on a nice rise- fail) But think its reasonable to think a small loss or small gain still possible

I bought some March 25 options on DGIT yesterday @2.70, which was up almost 26% by the end of the day. If its up today I'm a seller above 4

I bought HRBN options for NOV, I'm down on those but will let the options excercise. Stock currently between 20-21 with a tender to take the company private at 24 on the table. I expected news by Nov, but think the deal should be firm by end of Dec. I'll take ~15% and be happy :-P

Coal continues to look strong this year, I've been in and out of ANR and TCK all year. Currently hold no ANR stock or options but looking to get back in on a down day. The stock swings 4-6% almost daily, and if you are nimble provides some great option opportunities. Holding a Jan call at 32 for TCK since Sept, its up very nicely. I have an ask at 18.
Finally a JNJ Jan option at 52.5 I got in June. Stock looks good and I will not look to sell until January in hopes of a nice Santa Rally.
That covers the options. I'll post if I put any sell/buys

Placed a Sell order for $4.1 on the DGIT March 25.

Friday, April 16, 2010

Miracle of '76 (and a few years after)

The more one looks with frustration on the madness that is Washington politics (or maybe its just any type of politics) the lack of true deep intelligence (or maybe its just that the intelligence is drowned by the sound of special interest depositions) Looking back at the founding fathers their wisdom and the immortal document they created are truly master works. The amazing thing is the foresight, for example this quote:
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." - Thomas Jefferson

you could say they told us so, almost 250 years earlier. Maybe instead of looking ahead we should be looking to the past for advice.

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Half....Really?

I found this mildly disturbing today:

Nearly half of US households escape fed income tax

Now don't get me wrong I don't like paying taxes, but I do understand their importance, they provide for our police and fire protection, schools, roads, agencies that keep us safe, healthy, infrastructure, power, water.... I mean the list just goes on and on. BUT what if the people are profiting from taxes? Heres the example for an average 4 person household

"The family was entitled to a standard deduction of $11,400 and four personal exemptions of $3,650 apiece, leaving a taxable income of $24,000. The federal income tax on $24,000 is $2,769.

With two children younger than 17, the family qualified for two $1,000 child tax credits. Its Making Work Pay credit was $800 because the parents were married filing jointly.

The $2,800 in credits exceeds the $2,769 in taxes, so the family makes a $31 profit from the federal income tax."

Seems like if we all have healthcare (sorry insurance) we should all pay some taxes right? Something just doesn't seem right. So now we're sticking half the population with not only all the tax responsibility but they also pay other families that don't pay at all. I'm bothered by this.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Death of a Phone

Sunday was a sad day for me as I had to let a household comrade go the way of Wilson in Castaway, slowly drift out of reach into the depths of the unknown. With apologies to Poe,

The Phone

As we had been working outside mildly seeking,
she of who we will not be speaking,
placed the phone upon the hood of my car
No less and nothing more,

So while working could hear it ringing,
Gently calling somewhat singing,
Up upon my gentle car;
And oh how sweet it would to hear that ring again,
But it will ring nevermore, quoth the headset "nevermore"
All this and nothing more.

We were driving on the Merritt deeply,
while I accelerated gently steeping,
I heard a rumble on my windshield yor
Alas I shouted "What's that?" and cried,
To see a small item turning, bouncing down the turnpike's side,

Silence from my co-pilots seating,
I turned to see heart slowly beating,
Lost in agony of the phone we had before,
All this and nothing more.

We turned around and stopped and seeing,
If perhaps the phone was not yet fleeting,
Perhaps not mangled on the roadway yore,
All this and nothing more,

And so it sits there slowly turning,
Out of luck and out of reaching,
Among the dust and cigarette butt,
Its sits there calling still;
Never to ring upon the counter,
Never to call again or after,
Calling out from my chamber door,
Quoth the mangled phone, Nevermore

And so today it sits there turning,
While I Talking not, and nothing ringing
With the sounds that were before
Its life is gone of this its sure,
Of the simple life it had before,
all this and nothing more.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

Debt Clock!

I was working on my taxes the other day it dawned on me, that this year is a great return! I mean the new home-buyer thing is pretty cool (for me at least) and let me be honest it couldn't come at a better time. Now after a scare (turbotax imported some data from my brokerage, and proceeded to tell me I owed like 10k (slightly scary)) I then realized that it assumed I bought the shares for nothing- growing money on trees literally. I then realized that it failed to import about 70% of my other sales/transactions so I had to do those manually; so much for technology. Anyway we get down to the nitty gritty and I fill out the section I had been excited to reach; the First Time Homebuyer section. Well I(we) qualified for the full value so I got my 50% which is a cool $4000. Now as I said, I could use the money (who couldn't use it?) but it got me thinking; who needs it more? Maybe this a dumb thing to think about but I was curious- how far would my 4k go towards my share of the national debt. Enter Debt Clock (you should check it!) After the first wave of nausea and dizziness associated with just a terribly constructed page, try and focus on certain sectors, and it is actually quite interesting, and scary, and downright depressing (or maybe you just don't care- but you should!).

So my share (and your share too) $40,368, and my share as taxpayer is $113,831, which means that I am getting BACK, 10% of my share of the debt or 3.5% of my share as a taxpayer. Not a trivial amount to be giving away in this humble payers opinion. I suppose in the large scale its less than pennies; I just get concerned if we're not mortgaging our future with my(and many others) mortgages today.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Getting warmer?

I thoroughly enjoyed the Winter Olympics as they wrapped up this past weekend, (I also think that the Winter games are MUCH better than the summer ones- but that could be because I like the winter better in general.) So once again I find myelf concerned about the hypotheses about climate change and the warming that many say is inevitable and to some degree already happening. So it was sad when the Vancouverites had to truck in snow for the mountains above the city (not Whistler- they had too much snow) sometimes you have bad luck- before getting 7 feet in Utah I had been watching and they hadn't had snow for 2.5 weeks; VT had no snow in February then 4 ft last week. Its just how winter goes; or is it? Global warming folks jumped on this saying clearly its global warming; no snow= rising temperatures, but this a gross misstatement. It also is that the colder it is the less snow you will have- its simply too cold and can't hold the moisture. Conversely on the other side of spectrum they quote the coldest year in recorded history (some ~150 years) and 2 of the 10 largest recorded snowfalls in the East in 3 days! say that global warming? where? (now going forward warmer= holding more moisture and its also been made a case for warming)
I fall somewhere in between, I find Al Gore to be a fear mongerer, and complete deniers of climate change to be deluded. But I think our effort to 'prove' the global warming theory (carbon in the atmosphere directly related to warming temperatures) is (in the wrong hands) dangerous. Conservative talking head Pat Buchanan published this today. And while it too is a blunt (and one sided piece- but isn't that the definition of an op-ed?) it brings up some valid points. Anomalies are part of research but its very frustrating to me to watch people (dangerous?) spout the terrors of global warming and selectively chose facts that support them. As I said before the only way that climate change can be 'pure' is using the double blind system; the same system that the medical field uses where the true experiment is done by people who don't know the intended result.
Look, I want my snow; and I want lots of it, so a cooler climate is in my best interests, and I support efforts to reduce carbon emissions where feasible, but coming off the coldest year in recorded history (yes- an anomaly but still...) there is no tempered way of looking at it; and just because I question something doesn't mean I'm not paying attention- it just might be I don't always take things at face value.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Utah bound!

Perhaps the blog might get some kind of updating this week; granted mostly pictures and hopefully tales of epic snow and great runs. For the first time really we picked a week where it looks to be snowing almost everyday. And with 9" last night, and from my source on-the-ground 'Its dumping hard' its going to be nice for a while! Can't wait to get there!

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

The fate of music

I was reading the New York Times the other day on the plane home and there was a list of 10 items of reflection by Bono which had some interesting points but to be fair, a lot of self indulgence on some items to think about and consider in the upcoming year. Anyway the one item that touched a nerve for me was about the fate of the TV and movie industry going the same way as the music one.
I don't think this could be further from the truth. Maybe music did suffer because the files were smaller and nobody could have predicted that Napster and following peer to peer networks would blossom as they did, but the simple fact is that like the dinosaurs the music industry did not try to adapt and essentially killed itself from inaction. Obviously, hindsight is 20-20 but the thing that killed the music industry was not the internet, it was greed. If you were to look at album sales and the percentage that actually reaches an artist, it is something like 5 cents a single for talking points we'll give them a whole dollar; or ~8% (almost surely less) of a cd's cost. The artist is not relying on that cd revenue to survive; it comes from shows (roughly 40% of ticket prices) and merchandising (even more) and radio. In fact Mr. Bono you could release your next cd for free and you would still make many millions in concert sales and merchandising alone. I understand that a lot of the cost of the cd goes towards research, design, mastering but again they could have looked to other sources... they chose not to. Don't blame the carriers (and learn how a peer to peer network works)

TV and movies on the other hand are already posting episodes for free online- they already have advertising, and they are clearly trying to make it work. TV is more popular than ever and movies are breaking records yearly. They have seen the light as it were, and I don't think those two are going anywhere.