Thursday, July 2, 2009

What's next?

This article by the former Ambassador John Bolton provides (in my view) an overly bleak view of the Iranian situation but makes some valid points. The time of sanctions against Iran is over; sorry they can be sanctioned again and again, and the only people it hurts are the common citizen; Iran already has rampant inflation (30%) and a disappointing lack of industry for a very large, young and well educated population. The people are already bearing the brunt of UN sanctions what will more do? Conversely it seems to follow that Iran would follow North Korea's path which is we-don't-care-and-we-get-more-leverage-with-nukes (I mean nuclear energy for population use) so that's what we're going to do. And really doesn't that follow closer along the lines the regime has already been saying? Why would they just stop because we (the great evil) ask them too? Which leaves (as Bolton suggests) only the military option. This would be such a tragedy because it would erase all the feeling of unity that many here have felt in solidarity with the Iranians protesting. Suddenly the Iranian leadership can point again to Israel and the US as meddling and everything that might have initiated toward communication and good will towards at the very least the Iranian people- is gone and replaced by loyalty to country and government, and we're back at the standoff again.

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