Wednesday, September 23, 2009

What's in my wallet

So I'm hardly a financial genius but I thought I'd spew a little on my general outlook for the next few months. To say that the last year has been a roller coaster is putting it mildly. For those with 401k's and stocks day to day were drops (and updrafts) of several percentage points. Hardly the model of stability that is touted by those who think that stocks should form the basis of your retirement. I think I'll divide this into a few parts because I tend to get a bit carried away at points.

Lets take a peek back. When the first rumblings hit back last September I was at first skeptical, and stupidly tried to use the weakness to shore up some positions I was holding. Ouch. After playing options for the next couple months fairly successfully (These were one day and out style to match the +/- volatility) while slowly moving over to more cash based holdings. However, my core positions had been beat down pretty significantly. By around Thanksgiving I had to myself declared the worst was over and began moving toward buying again. Once again my bullish drive was a bit shortsighted. I took a few more lumps and hit a low in late February. For the 401k management I purposely moved the majority of my holdings to small cap funds and more aggressive/developing/tech funds (this was in January) when I was SURE the worst was over. It still wasnt't. SO what was the damage? Pretty bad, by late February I was off 46% from 4 months earlier. And the 401k was off something like 10% (even with contributions the entire time) It was time to change the strategy.

PT 2 tomorrow

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