Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Runaway Train?

I can't say that its off the tracks, but right now I look at the market and wonder how its still accelerating. Today's movement (which again points to a very strong start) is based on optimism fueled by the renewal of the tax cuts.... tax cuts for all. Which I have to say is a big mistake. I think that the middle class will still benifit by the tax cut continuing; read it as NOT a tax increase! But the renewal of this tax cut for all is difficult to swallow. Why Republicans continue to stubbornly refuse to budge for this tiny percentage (who by their very description are NOT suffering through this downturn- or they wouldn't be making so much money) is aggrevating in the highest order. If it comes down again that nearly half the population do not pay any taxes again this year however, I have to declare the system broken and accept failure. If everyone is paying tax than tax them, if 90 of the federal taxes are taken from these top %'s and businesses well then we are hypocrites of the first order if we yell tax them more.
I am looking to recoup my losses with the TCK and ANR options bought yesterday, and I'll be looking to sell on any weakness (sounds familiar?) On a strong move by JNJ I might also clear my position. The stock has been very weak for the past few weeks and seems to have a new lawsuit everyday which never bodes well. I'd like to see 8.5 or 9 for the TCK 50's if I'm being greedy. As I said it looks like (based soley on options) that over 21 million says it goes over 60 to close on the 17th (11mill over 55) We'll see it looks like a good day!

***Afternoon update: Well today was.... strange, spiking prices for both ANR and TCK at the start led to selling the ANR within the first 10 minutes at a 40% take; I held TCK and now am unhappily looking at what was a 40%+ up early completely disappear under selling pressure all day. So the ANR was a win; TCK I'm stuck kicking myself again. The weakness ending today looks to me like a very bad day tomorrow for the market. To that end I think I should take my medicine and sell today even at a slight loss thinking tomorrow I could buy lower. But I've been wrong so much on this stock I'm going to do a wait and see on it. The plan is to double down on a steep drop tomorrow, with a watchful eye to see if it looks like it could be 2 down days before a turnaround. To compensate for this I sold (FINALLY!) the Mar 25 DGIT calls for $4.7 even better than the 4.3 I've been looking for forever. Go Figure.

No comments: